Shine a Light on Fine Gael

Received this piece from Vincent Woodwood who has an excellent site at http://vincentjwood.blogspot.com that is well worth a read.


Shine a Light on Fine Gael


One of the clear objectives for people who want to see far reaching progressive change is to work towards the best possible government from the next election.


It is a given that Fianna Fail won’t form part of that government. Nobody would touch them. Even if the figures added up and it was technically possible to form a government between Fianna Fail and Labour, it was long ago ruled out by Labour. That, as it turned out, was a smart move for them to make at time. Support rose for the party, as people drew the conclusion that principle lay behind the decision. It was also very astute. Labour saw that there was a sizable and expanding progressive electorate out there. The decision to create clear distance between them and Fianna Fail was calculated to increase their political strength.


The bookies favourite is for a coalition between Fine Gael and Labour. Labour are going along with this perception. In the immediate aftermath of the fallout from the collapse in the banking system and the run up to the last budget, the public mood has been swayed towards looking for the quickest and most effective way of consigning the current government to history. Therefore, there has been a boost to both parties poll ratings. The boost to Labours ratings can be explained in two ways. In the first instance, they have been presented as the most obvious partner to Fine Gael. They have been in government together before and in does not stretch the imagination to put them in a partnership again.


The other factor is that one connected to Labour’s decision to rule out Fianna Fail and to take off the gloves in attacking the main governing party inside at outside Leinster House.


The rise in the Fine Gael vote I think also falls into two main areas. As the largest opposition party, they are seen as the most likely to replace Fianna Fail and in simple terms, they are the quickest and easiest way to punish the incumbents. There are also a safe home for conservative minded voters and those who want to maintain the political and economic system pretty much as it is. If Fianna Fail are removed together with all of the negative baggage they carry, then a new administration with a different cast of characters can take over without having to change the overall way in which the economy is run.


The ideology and policy platform of Fine Gael is indistinguishable in any meaningful way from Fianna Fail. They both believe in deregulated and privatised provision of public services. They both want to roll back the state. They are both conservative parties. That needs saying and repeating at every opportunity.


There are a group of people who I believe are thinking about their politics. People have been exposed to a one-size fits all ‘choice’ between two conservative parties and a largely compliant media who have dismissed any variation in policy positions or any fresh thinking that may challenge what had become economic orthodoxy. The collapse in the banking system and the light that this has shone on the weaknesses of this capitalist open economy has stirred enough debate to at least open minds towards alternatives.


That these people may feel that their best option would be to vote for Fine Gael in order to sufficiently change the order, has to be a major concern to all who want to see real progressive change. It also poses a challenge.


There are two elements to that challenge. The first is to convince this group that a vote for Fine Gael would not change anything. Fine Gael need to be challenged on their policy platform and on their ‘vision’. What do they want to see in 5 or 10 years time. They are open to attack on there plans for the public sector and the increased role for the private sector.


The other way that people could be discouraged from voting for Fine Gael is to ensure that the party that would have to support them in any new government, Labour, moved away from that position.


That is an enormous challenge. All current indications are that the leadership of the Labour party are gearing up for government with Fine Gael. It’s the easiest option for them. There are also conservative elements within the Labour party who would feel comfortable with this type of coalition. However, there are many within the Labour party and the wider Labour and Trade Union Movement who can see the opportunity for much wider and more radical change in the current climate. They can see that this is one of those moments in history when real change can be effected. They too can see that the political and social landscape can be radically changed and that we are on the verge of being able to consign the neo-liberal domination of the past few decades to history.


The Labour party have an opportunity to contribute to the atmosphere of change. They can join with others to put a different type of vision before the people. One that shifts the political paradigm. In doing so, they would be playing a significant part in influencing that group of electors who mistakenly believe that Fine Gael can be a lead actor in creating a better society.


Conservative people will stay with Fine Gael and whatever remains of Fianna Fail. Progressive forces can then work together to forge ahead with putting a people-centred vision before the electorate.

Irish Citizen's News : FG & Labour "knowledge economy"

Irish Citizen's News is a punchy news blog providing short news stories and insights into current affairs. Worth bookmarking.

FG and Labour refuse to reverse cuts to students grants


Last night, the "government in waiting", Fine Gael and Labour could not make a promise to strickened students to reverse the cuts to their grants.

The Union of Students in Ireland is furious over the change which it claims will force many to drop out of college.

Anger is mounting over drastic cuts in grants for 25,000 students who will lose €1,700 each on average from next September.

The students will be forced onto lower grants because they live less than 45km from college.

Until now they got the higher 'non-adjacent' grant which kicked in at 24km from college.
 

Will they, Fu*k!

Blogging comment of the week would surely be from Betty who posted the following on Irishelection.com in relation to all this talk of a grand coalition :Question–if there is a change of govt will FF support the new administration??? As Mr James Gogarty [might have] said “will they, F***

Ireland: A Warning

This article is taken from Duncan's economic blog. Which looks at british politics from a left perspective.

This article looks at the disasterous economic deflationary policies of the FF/Greens. The labour party here must look at these facts and decide do they wish to go into the next government as coalition partners of FG and end up pesuing the same defaltionary policies, that will result in further economic disaster for the ordinary irish citizen.

Labour must join forces with SF and other pogressives to change politics here for good and build an ecomic that works in the interests of the ordinary Irish citizen.

http://duncanseconomicblog.wordpress.com/2010/09/21/ireland-a-warning/

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Duncan’s Economic Blog


Ireland: A Warning

A year ago I wrote a post for Left Foot Forward on the Irish economy. I noted how, unlike Britain, the Irish Government had reacted to the global recession by cutting spending and attempting to drive down costs to remain globally competitive. I also noted this was broadly the policy pushed by the Conservatives at the time.

I assessed what had happened in the year between September 2008 and September 2009.

Nearly one year on, what has been the effect of these polices? Irish GDP is expected to fall by 12%, a staggering decline. Unemployment has reached 12.4% and is still rising. The economy is now in the grip of a severe deflation (minus 5.9%). Finance Minister Brian Lenihan openly talks of the need to “get our cost base down” in order to regain competitiveness. A policy of aiming to balance the budget and drive down wage costs is a throwback to the so-called Treasury View of the 1930s, a policy rejected then by progressives and rightly rejected now. The final irony is that, despite all of this needless suffering, the Irish Government will still be running a budget deficit of 12% of GDP this year while the ratings agencies have already cut Ireland’s sovereign bonds from AAA to AA.
In December last year, as Ireland delivered yet another emergency budget that was again praised by British Tories, I wrote an update.

Iain Dale writes that:

“The PBR the British Chancellor should have delivered, was delivered yesterday in Dublin. Hopefully George Osborne is studying it in great detail.”

The results of Ireland’s policy are plain to see:

• Irish unemployment is 12.5 per cent;

• The country is experiencing deflation at –6.6 per cent;

• GDP has fallen 7.4 per cent over the past year and 10.5% from its peak;

• And despite the cuts they have still had their credit rating downgraded.

But what exactly are the measures that the Tories are so keen to praise?

– Child benefit is being cut by 10%.

– Unemployment benefit is being cut by 4.1%, with larger cuts for those under 25.

– Public Sector workers are facing pay cuts of 5-8%.

– Prescription charges are being increased by 50%.

– Other increased health charges including A&E, inpatient and outpatient charges and a higher monthly threshold above which people cannot get free drugs under the Drug Payment Scheme.

– The Health budget is being cut by €400mn on top of previously announced cuts

– Further departmental cuts will be announced in coming days.

– €960mn is cut from the investment budget
So, a year after the first post and two years after Ireland embarked on its programme of cutting, where are we now?

Not in a good place. As the FT reports:

Ireland’s central bank governor has indicated that Brian Cowen’s government needs to go even further in cutting the forthcoming budget if it wants to restore international confidence in its management of the economy.

…

A year ago the populist Fianna Fáil-led coalition won international plaudits as one of the first EU countries to tackle the crisis head on, administering cuts in public sector pay averaging 15 per cent, and reductions in child and other benefits in the most savage budget in decades.

Yet today Ireland, together with Greece and Portugal, is seen as the most vulnerable of the EU’s peripheral economies, as it struggles with a property and banking crash that has blown a hole in the public finances and threatens the economic recovery.
As Ireland prepares to engage in (another) round of cuts, Bloomberg reports how unconvinced “the markets” are by Irish policy.

Thirty-seven percent of those surveyed say Ireland is likely to default, more than double the rate three months ago, according to a quarterly poll of 1,408 investors, traders and analysts.
Ireland is providing a vivid example that the “cuts don’t work”. As the head of asset allocation at Credit Suisse Private Bank warned a year ago

Spending cuts to be announced today by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan may end up sacrificing long-term economic growth for reducing the budget deficit, an Irish author and head of asset allocation at Credit Suisse Private Banking has warned.

Michael O’Sullivan, whose book, ‘Ireland and the Global Question’, was published in 2006, warned this week that Mr Lenihan’s expected swingeing cuts could do long-term damage. “Arguably the Irish bond market is being saved at the expense of Irish society”, said Mr O’Sullivan.

“By cutting spending you lower the trend line of growth and store up bigger fiscal problems down the line,” he added.
Cutting now reduces growth and tax revenue and increases unemployment and welfare spending. It does not close the deficit in a sustainable manner.

Ireland, a euro member, may have little choice but to pursue this policy. The UK though does face a choice, and we are making the wrong one.

Fianna Fáil are dead - We must forget about the left alliance and put the boot into Labour NOW or else!!!!

Received the piece below from a contributor in Dublin. Well worth a read.

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At the next elections only about seven people out of every hundred will put a vertical mark beside our candidate. So say the opinion polls. So said the last two elections. Against a backdrop of one in three of our core demographic (under 25s) without a job and a half a million people rotting on the dole queues this situation is calamitous. On top of this we have an electorate thirsty for change like never before in the history of the 26 county-state - who want to find hope from a dismal political landscape and have so far sought refuge in the mirage that is the Labour Party who have hovered up virtually all Fianna Fail’s lost support while the rest of us look on.



Even the gutless Blueshirts have tried to eat their own young as a response to the polls. Where is our reaction?!!


The unprecedented defection of councillors in Dublin did not jerk us from our deep sleep and now neither is the potentially ruinous poll numbers. It seems to me as if we are a/ consciously adopting a careful strategy of non-strategy whereby we let the other party’s discredit themselves and we succeed on election day by default or b/ we have no clear strategy. I suspect b.



A cunning plan…



At this stage in the game, flogging the rotten Fianna Fail carcass isn’t the answer – the voters that will abandon them have already declared for Labour and it is unlikely the deluded dregs of the Fianna Fail vote (22-24 per cent) will abscond now. It follows therefore that we start to lay the boot into Labour and expose the raging populism where they will say and do what ever it takes to get their grubby arses into the back of a ministerial merc. Their Croke Park cop out is a good place to start.



We need to plant the seed in the public mind that a vote for Labour is a vote for Enda Kenny and his fascist policies and that this impending government is looming over them and their communities with a massive knife waiting to cut their incomes and services further. Unfortunately our unwillingness to reject coalition with the two main parties was a mistake that weakens our position a bit in this regard. Hopefully at the next Ard Fheis we will collectively realise this and rebuff them properly.



In discussing this with a fellow Shinner lately he responded that we couldn’t really go after Labour with all our zeal because we ideally want to build an alliance with them. Bollocks. The next government will be Fine Gael-Labour and talk of left alliances are presumptuous and premature. When the sums are right Labour is our best option. But for now we are in a fight with them for our own survival and if we don’t claw back our votes they will have nobody to align with.



Get the simple things right lads…



But as well as a flagging political strategy, the nuts and bolts of the Sinn Féin operation are failing as well. The mechanics of having a party leader based in Belfast dipping in and out of a debate in Dublin does not wash with people. Like others have already mentioned, we need twin leaders, north and south, operating under the party president. This leader has to be elected from the current Dáil deputies at a special meeting of Sinn Féin members. Such a figurehead would take part in leaders’ debates, feature on the ‘satisfaction with party leaders’ polls and act as the visual front for the party in the twenty-six. As pointed out by Ruadhán here previously - by accident of history we are seen as a northern-based party and this crisis of identity is threatening to sink us in this state. It is within our power to set right this imbalance of power but if we are inflexible on it we will continue to pay the price.



The leadership issue is but one element necessary to force us into the debate. It is only half of the equation. We have to get more inventive with our output. With only four TDs, by and large the media ignore us. Entire weeks go by with only a handful of meaningful mentions. It is back to the chicken and the egg. Unless our message gets out we won’t have more TDs and unless we have more TDs we won’t get our message out. Our press team needs to think up creative ways of cracking into the media by making it impossible to ignore us. To supplement the leaflets and community work done on the ground we need the Sinn Féin message coming across the media more than it is.



Cries in the wilderness…



Various people including Toiréasa Ferris have vented their dissatisfaction with Sinn Féin in the south. Still it seems to me that en masse, as a party, we don’t seem to be engaging with the obvious problem of static support in a time of massive political disorder - like a dysfunctional family ignoring the alcoholic father. Even if you scroll down to Ruadhán’s previous article below there is only there is only one comment in response. It is as if we think we are due one good poll result and after we magically get it then everything will be dandy. Or that after we get seven TDs (enough for a technical group in Leinster House and a bit of guaranteed airtime) we’ll be grand. These things are not on the cards as of now – and they won’t be if we trundle on month after month without addressing our problems.



Finally and in conclusion…



At the Ogra Shinn Féin National Congress in Belfast in November, Gerry Adams called for ‘impatient Republicans’ to stand up and be counted. He’s right. A bit more constructive impatience is what will turn it around for us.

Left wing Govt? Yes Please!

As contained in the brand new An Phoblacht Eoin o'Broin looks at the possibilities implied by the groundbreaking recent poll that put Labour in the lead for the first time ever. But the poll also included some other noteable firsts. And I am not talking about the Fine Gael's cannibalism. For the first time the combined progressive vote is over 50%. This is a huge jump as even back in the late 1980s with the country in dire economic straits (and a radical left wing party in the form of the Workers party peaking at 7 seats,though only 4.9% of the vote) the progressive vote was only about 24%. The possibility of a left wing govt. is becoming a viable option. At the very least the ability of left wing actors to steer the course of the country towards the left is increasing. Eoin's article:

The most important aspect of the most recent Irish Times poll was not the 32% for Labour, but the combined 45% for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. By Eoin O Broin.

Individual polls tell you very little, it's the overall trend that counts.

Since February 2009 Labour has scored from 20% to 25% in the MRBI polls. Their recent dramatic 10-point jump could either be an anomaly or an indicator of a significant surge.

Until we have a few more polls we just won't know.

However the slump in support for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael has been coming for some time.

Historically the states two main parties held between 70% and 80% of the votes in local and general elections.

However, since the end of 2008, both election results and opinion polls have witnessed a steady decline in their combined share of the vote.

In the 2007 general election the Fianna Fail-Fine Gael vote was at 69%. Throw in the PDs and the total right-wing vote was 72%.

Opinion polls for the remainder of 2007 and pre-recession 2008 demonstrated a similar vote distribution.

Things started to change from the autumn of 2008.

In every poll from that date the combined FF-FG vote has slipped, from 61% in the November Irish Times poll, to 51% in the September 2009 Irish Times polls.

This decline was in evidence in the 2009 European parliament elections, with the combined FF-FG vote hitting an all time low of 53%.

And now, for the first time in the history of the state the total FF-FG vote has slipped below the 50% mark to a historic low of 45%.

So what does this general trend tell us?

Clearly it indicates a growing disillusionment with the two main parties. As unemployment rises and the recession continues to bite, the failed politics and policies of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are cutting less and less ice with the electorate.

While Labour has been the chief beneficiary of this to date, Eamon Gilmore's declared intention of entering coalition with Fine Gael will mean that many voters are sure to be disappointed by the compromises that will inevitably ensue.

The Labour Party's promise of One Ireland can not be delivered within the framework of Fine Gael's economic, fiscal and political conservatism.

Of course there is an alternative, and the Irish Time poll suggests, even if only tentatively, that the voting public may just be open to persuasion.

Fifty five percent of those polled by the Irish Times opted for parties other than Fianna Fail or Fine Gael.

The combined progressive vote is for the first time in polling history above 50%.

Could this be a sign that the electorate wants real change, and not just a cosmetic changing of the same old political guard?

There has never been a better time for the left to argue for a real alliance for change, an alliance that has no place for the failed politics or policies of Fianna Fail or Fine Gael.

Such an alliance should be about policies, not personalities. It should involve Labour, Sinn Fein and those smaller left parties who are interested in radical reform of institutions and policies.

Civil society groups and individuals should seek to define a role independent of but encouraging such a party political alliance and act as a social engine and guarantee of the agenda for change promised in advance of any general election.

This alliance for change should be based on the principle of equality. Its core aim should be the creation of a more economically, politically, culturally and affectively equal society.

Its understanding of equality should go further than equality of opportunity and focus on equality of outcome and condition, challenging structural and collective inequalities as well as individual ones.

It should offer a job creation plan to get 200,000 people back to work in 12 months; a universal health care system delivered on the basis of need and not ability to pay; real reform of the tax system making it both progressive and sustainable; substantial institutional and constitutional reform making politics more democratic and participative; a comprehensive plan anchored in new equality architecture to tackle the structural inequalities imbedded in our society; and the democratic advancement of all-Ireland economic and political reunification in the context of the full implementation of the Belfast Agreement.

It is too early to tell whether the Irish Times poll signals the beginning of a real shift in public opinion. However, there is no doubt that a real opportunity exists to make the argument that a better Ireland is possible.

AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE LABOUR ROUTE

The strategy of building an Alliance with Labour is one thats been discussued a number of times on this site. One comment challenged anyone who had an alternative strategy in mind to bring it to the table. Thats worth doing as an exercise just to see what the options are and while the end result may or may not be a viable strategy hopefully such discussion can broaden the options for the party and how we move forward.

Firstly I'd like to say I personally see merit in a working relationship with Labour while still having doubts about their lingering anti-republican factions, their willingness to do the shovel work necessary to rebuild the southern state and ultimately their committment to creating an all-Ireland republic.

Significant caveats but still the basic idea of working together with the other major Left wing party would offer some advantages to our project from time to time.

My suggested alternative strategy is therefore somewhat similar to the proposed Labour alliance however it differs as regards the degrees of effort that the party should invest in that particular relationship at the expense of building other alliances.

And while the proposed Labour alliance does not suggest an exclusive relationship with that party to the detriment of others options I am concerned that in its current form, with the requirement of SF having to prove itself suitable to Labour that it may become an alliance that sees the party repeatedly seeking to impress Labour to no end. How frequently would we have to court Labour before they went on a first date with us? As too often happens to over eager suitors we might just end up with egg on our face while dashing Enda gets the girl. Is that a risk we can afford to take. What benefit would we get from such a situation?

On what basis should we commit to such an alliance?

Well the arguments that I have seen seem based on 2 points:

(1) That as a sister left party then there is a natural bond;
(2) Further Labour is a large party and as such an alliance with them would have a meaningful weight, and also offer the opportunity for realignment of southern politics.

Point 1 is in my belief not a sufficient basis for a strategy simply because all the evidence points the other way.
point 2 has more weight to it because as the "natural" coalition partner for Fine Gael due to their size Labour are a party that can wield some influence, and will shortly be in govt. As has been commented elsewhere it may be an insurmountable obstacle to the strategy that we offer Labour nothing in return if they walk away from FG/FF. How can we convince labour to turn their back on govt. with FG in return for the prospect of an alliance and the prospect of future power in a left block.

And thats the main issue with the alliance. Because Labour is so disinterested in it we could simply exhaust ourselves working for it with nothing to show for it but Labour crowned as the leader of the Irish left with SF its sidekick.

Rather than creating an alliance with Labour we should first aim to deepen the working relationship with that party. A working relationship that would from time to time allow both parties to advance their separate aims. This will yield material benefits to both parties and allow us at times to push forward a common policy agenda but it will not demand the impossible from either party. We retain the commitment to engage with Labour but that engagement is conducted in a more more careful manner

But that would only be one aspect of the strategy because the significant amount of energy that would otherwise have been invested in Labour would now be freed up to develop other initiatives. And rather than trying to have a dialogue with one other elected party extra effort could be invested in developing relationships with community organisations, trade unions, and also other organisations and bodies ranging from anti-poverty groups, farming organisations, progressively minded business groups who reject the failed IBEC arguments condemning them to huge rates of insolvency etc.

There is a large group of people out there who have no access to influencing how south Ireland is shaped. They are not simply the voters themselves but also people in various civic bodies who have no avenue to articulate an alternative vision. Instead they are stifled by the consensus, for example that 67% of people who followed Labour, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael and voted Yes to Lisbon. The 33% who voted no are a disenfranchised block. I suspect that such disenfranchised blocks exist in many of the civic bodies across the southern state. One feature of the south is how such bodies take leadership roles in society that maybe political movements should be giving. In the south a progressive agenda can be driven as successfully, i suspect, by engaging with such bodies as it would be by investing in relatoinships with established parties.

This sense of disenfranchisement is evident also in the Irish media where the FG-Labour-FF consensus to generally regarded as gospel.

Rather than trying to build an alliance with one party we should instead be focussed on building alliances with those who would rather hear a different voice than the Irish Times/ Sindo; those who believe that a farming group like the IFA should be more militant in breaking the hold of FF allied beef barons, and so on and so on.

The focus must be on the community structures and civic groups or representative bodies that wield so much influence in the southern state. We must give the disenfranchised minority in those groups a political ally. Ultimately this will allow us to more effectively deliver change on behalf of all the disenfranchised in south Ireland - voters, non-voters and those working in civic groups who can create the progressive alliance we wish to build.

Is this a more profitable focus? Labour would be then just one additional interface for out party not our main focus?

The difficult position of Killian Forde

On 22 December the Sinn Féin website issued a statement regarding Sinn Féin's opposition to the Dublin City Council budget for 2010. http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/17942

This statement outlined the parties opposition to the budget and the fact that 40,000 low income Dublin households would now be facing increased charges. However the statement also stated that Sinn féin councillor, Killian Forde, voted for the budget and Cllr. Forde had therefore acted in breach of his mandate from the party.

On the face of it, it would appear obvious that as a left winger I should attack Killian for his actions and demand that he be rebuked/disciplined by the party in the strongest terms.

However, I am torn on this issue because I feel Killian believes he is showing leadership on this matter and indeed acting in line with overall Sinn Féin policy in the South. That is to say that Sinn Féin has spoken a lot about the need to build a left alternative and the need for us to work closely with the Labour Party on doing this. It appears to me that this is exactly what Killian has done.

Dublin city Council is not run by Fiann fáil or the Greens. Labour is the biggest party and is then followed by Fine Gael with Sinn Féin only having five councillors.

Given this it should be noted that Killian Forde has spent the past nine weeks as chair of the Budget Working Group trying to transform the council budget from a really awful budget, with something slightly more palatable. Killian argues that the original proposals had much bigger cuts in the business rates, higher rent, removal of both the lift and the standing charge in bins, proposed cuts in front line 'people' services etc etc. In Killian's view this original budget was grim.

As head of the Budget Working Committee he then worked with the Labour people and in his mind got as much changed as he could.

On the Monday before the budget the City Manager made whats called order, under his powers as written in legislation to remove the waiver on the lifting of the bins, of which 40% of all Dublin households qualified. Sinn Fein disagreed with this and submitted a amendment to the budget, which Killian supported. However, this amendment was ruled out of order.

This left Killian in a position where he could vote against the budget and forget about all the work he had done with the labour Party in amending it. Or he could vote for the budget as the least worst option available. He chose to vote for the budget.

Where does this all leave Sinn Féin in the capital? Well I don't know, but if we are going to follow the ideas of Eoin o Broin and others and try to develop a strong left alternative with labour then big questions need to be answered and Killian may well have shown the party the way forward. Or perhaps not.

Is Labour's love lost? Building a progressive alliance in a world without social partnership.

In last week's An Phoblacht Eoin o'Broin again highlighted the opportunity for a broad, progressive, political alliance in south Ireland which would serve to realign southern politics away from the oddity of two right wing parties with the same ideas constantly swapping office.

Starry Plough had looked at this question before. There has never been a better time to realign politics certainly. For such a long time Fianna Fail had a strong lock on Public sector workers and also even in working class communities. Seeing as how both these groups have been targetted for some extra pain by that wretched party in the recent budget it is to be hoped that their % vote will drop even further. But for all the delight in seeing Fianna Fail on the canvas, if not quite knocked out, its a sober warning to anyone who wants to see some change in this state to see FG rising high in the polls. As so often Fine Gael will win not because their ideas are welcome but because they are not Fianna Fail. And in effect Tweedledum is about to see himself pushed over by Tweedledee. The tea party will continue full steam ahead, no changes planned thank you very much.

So can Labour upset the party and start to break this tired old musical chairs? However they choose to act Eoin is right in asserting that a meaningful left alliance would require Labour's input. They are still a strong block and without them a left wing alliance is weakened. But without a left wing alliance Labour is only going to be best supporting actor to Enda Kenny with a limited input over the big decisions with an unleashed Leo Varadkar.

The only part of the article I was unsure of was the strategy where "Firstly it would be to demonstrate to the Labour Party that republicans are serious about the long term objective of transforming the social, political and economic landscape of the country." I think its equally up to Labour to demonstrate their serious commitment to those objectives.

But that said every effort should be made to demonstrate to Labour that our committment to those objectives is firm and that we stand on the same side. I do think that Labour need to start building this idea of a broad left alliance if only to check Fine Gael who are starting to really dominate the polls with a 13% margin over FF and a 19% margin over Labour. A left alliance will give Labour leverage and the people of the south an alternative to the terrible twins.

I also think that with the effective death of social partnership that this type of alliance is necessary.

Eoin's article:

Engaging Labour

IN his February 2009 Ard Fheis speech, Gerry Adams called for an, ‘egalitarian alternative to the politics of greed, inefficiency, waste and corruption.’

He called for realignment in Irish politics to end “the dominance’ of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

“The Labour Party” argued Adams “has a duty not to prop up either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. Instead Labour should explore with us and others the potential for co-operation in the future.”
The following month in his Ard Fheis speech Eamon Gilmore said that, “to end crony capitalism, you have to end crony politics”. He told delegates that Labour’s mission is “to build a new, better and fairer Ireland”.

A week earlier in a ‘Sunday Business Post’ interview Gilmore ruled out a left alliance. He told Pat Leahy, “There will be no alliance with Sinn Féin, parties of the left, with individuals of the left. There will be no alliance of that kind.”

While officially the Labour Party’s objective is to become the second largest party in the state and lead the next government, party strategists know that if it is in the next government it will be as a junior partner to Enda Kenny’s Fine Gael.

Such a coalition can not create “a new, better and fairer Ireland”. It will be a conservative government, dominated by a resurgent, right-wing Fine Gael.
So where does this leave Sinn Féin’s call for an alliance for change? Should we abandon any hope of Labour working for a realignment of Irish politics? Is Labour really no different to Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael?

For this writer there will be no realignment of Irish politics without Labour. No alliance for change can be built without their active participation.

Thus Sinn Féin should not abandon the Labour Party but develop a strategy of engagement. The purpose of this strategy would be threefold.

Firstly it would be to demonstrate to the Labour Party that republicans are serious about the long term objective of transforming the social, political and economic landscape of the country.

Secondly it would be to build effective working relationships at a local and national level with Labour and its supporters on issues of common concern.

Thirdly it would be to strengthen the hand of those within the Labour Party, and its broader support base in the trade union movement and civic society who believe that such an alliance is not only possible, but realisable.

There are many activists and supporters within the Labour Party who do not want to be part of a Fine Gael coalition. There are others who simply do not see any other viable option in the short term.

Those of us who believe that a better, fairer Ireland is possible have a responsibility to engage and convince those who share our broad values and aspirations that an alliance for change is the best way forward.

But an alliance for change will not emerge on its own. Those of us who believe in it need a strategy, including a strategy for engaging with the Labour Party.

This year’s European elections saw the combined left vote in the 26 Counties reach 30% for the first time in the history of the state. The economic and political model promoted by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is in crisis. There has never been a better time for the left to promote a real alternative.

Magic Numbers in the southern Media.

Magic Numbers.

I've been trying to read up on my economics. While its always been a relevant subject and necessary for anyone who has an interest in progressive politics its really hit the limelight now.

The dismal science has many arcane and complex theories.

Two of which were discovered by the southern media.

The first is TINA - There Is No Alternative. Its the southern media's catch all theory thats applied once exhaustion sets in. Its most recent outing has been with Nama.

But the second is economics at its best. Its the Magic Number theory.

First I learned of it was yesterday in the Sunday Tribune. Shane Coleman, Political editor and dabbler in economic theory was the man of the moment.

In a rather long article questioning whether Fine Gael and Labour had the bottle to make difficult budgetary choices Mr. Coleman was determined to set the scene early.

The first words were: It's the €4bn question. Now when I did my leaving cert in english we were told avoid repetition, dont hack away at the same point. Did anyone tell Shane?

Repeatedly the number of €4 billion in cuts is the number bandied about. Over and over again Shane hacks away telling us that "The closer it comes to the budget, the closer Fine Gael's proposals to produce the magic €4bn will come under scrutiny." And Fine Gael can be sure that its proposals will come under scrutinity but since when did all budgetary policy become defined by the number 4 billion.

Shane lists a number of various opposition party measures to cut expenditure but guess what as none of these hit 4 billion then well they just dont do it.

There will have to be budgetary cut backs. The economy is going to need to be restructured. Its going to be rough and hard and we all know it but the southern state is not best served by journalists who become fixated by numbers without taking the time to consider what the numbers mean. Just because the Fianna Fail/Green govt. sets a target does not mean its correct and anyone who fails to hit it is wrong. If the various economic plans of the opposition parties are focussed, credible and purposeful then thats the mark of a good plan.

The mark of a good plan is not picking a number and slashing and burning till you get there. Magic aint real Shane and picking the magic numer of 4 billion simply because its the wheeze of the moment aint much of a trick and its certainly not a useful contribution to the debate.

Maybe one day in the south we'll get a media that takes the time to think for itself rather than just dribble out this nonsense.

why Sinn Féin supporters should vote labour, Green and Socialist Party

This is an article written by Eoin O Broin and published in this weeks An Phoblacht. I agree with its ideas, but living in Dublin I would certainly add the Socialist Party to the list of candidates Sinn Féin supporters should vote for.



Voting for a Left alternative


THERE are nine days left. Seats will be won or lost on the basis of what each of us do and say in the remaining days of the campaign. Every vote is crucial. Including transfers.

For Sinn Féin, securing transfers is vital if we are to make breakthroughs across the country. Enormous thought and energy will be spent on identifying and securing those preferences.
But what of our transfers? How will we vote after placing our initial preferences for Sinn Féin candidates?

For this writer, it’s very simple. I will vote Sinn Féin, Labour and Green.

My reasons for doing so are straightforward. I want a Left alternative government.
I want a Left, republican, green alternative in my local council, in Leinster House and, in time, nationally.

I want a Left alternative that promotes job creation, public services, environmental sustainability, social and economic equality and human rights.

In the 26 Counties, this means that Sinn Féin, Labour and the Green Party must form an alliance to break the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael stranglehold on local and central government.

But haven’t Labour ruled out a coalition of the Left? Isn’t Eamon Gilmore positioning himself to enter government with Fine Gael? Surely a vote for Labour is a vote for Fine Gael?

Unfortunately, the answer to these questions is yes.

But, in order to strengthen the hand of those people inside Labour who are arguing for a Left alliance, we have to demonstrate that the numbers stack up. We have to show that a Left alliance is not just politically desirable but numerically possible.

But aren’t the Greens propping up a Fianna Fáil government? Haven’t Green TDs supported cuts to vital public services and bail-outs for developers and bankers? Did they not pass two Budgets that punished young people, pensioners and those with special needs?

Yes, and the electorate will punish them for all of these decisions.

The Green Party is not the problem; Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are. Building a Left alternative in the 26 Counties will require the involvement of the Green Party, their policies and those people who vote for them. Our objective should not be to punish them but to detach them from Fianna Fáil and engage them in our alternative.
Despite knowing that neither Labour nor the Greens are currently interested in building a Left alliance, I will vote for them anyway.

Some on the Left find it easier to dismiss both Labour and the Greens. But, as always, disunity on the Left benefits only Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Our job must be to build the Left republican alternative we believe in. It is not enough just to make the political arguments. We have to win them, with other political parties, trade unions, civic society and, crucially, the public.

As with any process of political change, someone has to take the lead. Should it surprise any of us that that someone is Sinn Féin?

An Alliance for change - What's that?

Eoin ó Broin, somebody I have a lot of time for, wrote the following piece in An Phoblacht recently.

It is time for a politics of hope and purpose. It is time for a politics of change.

For today people need concrete proposals for economic and social recovery; for tomorrow, they need a vision for political and economic transformation.

In his Ard Fheis speech, Gerry Adams set out Sinn Féin's stall. He said, "Our society needs core values based on social justice, fairness, equality and decency." He said, "There can be an egalitarian alternative to the politics of greed, inefficiency, waste and corruption.

"Crucially, he said, "I believe the time is right for a new alliance of all people and parties that want real and fundamental change.

"In the South, this new alliance should involve Sinn Féin, Labour, the Greens, progressive independents, the trade union movement, the community and voluntary sector and all those individuals and organisations who believe that a better Ireland is possible.

However, such an alliance will not happen unless people take the decision to make it happen and invest the resources to match. Political will and effort - from Sinn Féin and others - will determine whether Gerry's Ard Fheis words are to become reality.
The Ard Fheis speech - Alternative politics in Ireland


All very hopeful words from Gerry and from Eoin about how we can build our influence in the South, but to me the meat lies in the final paragraph, " such an alliance will not happen unless people take the decision to make it happen .

"The question we must ask ourselves is do we really wish to make it happen? Are we prepared to go out and work with others? Are we ready to move away from election politics and towards working on a daily basis for real social change?

Since the Ard Fheis I have not seen any major evidence of SF working with other groups on major issues. So, why are we not holding meetings throughout the country and inviting others to join with us in creating an alliance for change.

Is it because we don't want to give me our splendid isolation? Is it because we fear nobody else will turn up? Is it because we don't know how to do it? Is it because the leadership has not shown us how?

I believe all the above answers are correct, but fxck it let's give it a go. In our local cumman we should go out and try and build something in the local area. Invite Labour, the greens, community groups, independents and most radically of all LOCAL PEOPLE. Have the meeting around jobs, local cuts, anything. Go out with the intention of forming some form of alliance for change and let's see where it takes us.

Let's not be afraid to fail, but let's dare to succeed